A stunning general election poll has handed a thumping lead back to Labour in Wales.
It shows a remarkable turnaround after YouGov’s first two Wales-only polls of the general election campaign gave the Tories clear leads.
And it comes after two polls narrowed the UK-wide Tory lead to nine points – though that would still hand Theresa May victory.
The latest Welsh Political Barometer study by YouGov gave Labour a 10-point lead, a reversal of a 10-point Tory lead in Wales a month ago.
If it comes true on June 8, the poll would actually allow Labour to gain a seat in Wales, ultra-marginal Gower.
The Tories would lose the seat, but no others.
Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University, which commissioned the poll, said: “The most important change from our previous poll is clearly the resurgence in Labour support.
“This is broadly in line with the Britain-wide polls, which have generally been showing a narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour in recent days.
“But the extent of the Labour rise, and Conservative fall, are rather greater in Wales, and are sufficient to put Labour back into a significant lead in Wales.”
He admitted the poll could be an “outlier”, and noted it was conducted immediately after popular former Welsh Labour leader Rhodri Morgan died.
But he added: “While short-term factors may account for some of what we see in this latest Barometer poll, it does appear that after the extraordinary success of the Conservative party at the beginning of the election campaign, they are losing some ground to Labour.
“At least for the moment, Labour seem to be winning the campaign, if not the election as a whole. That is particularly true in Wales.”
SUMMARY (WALES): Lab 44%, Con 34%, Plaid 9%, Lib 6%, UKIP 5%
SAMPLE: 1,025 Welsh adults
WHAT IT FOUND: In an incredible turnaround, this poll showed support for Labour surging back to levels slightly higher than 2015 in Wales. What is astonishing is that two earlier YouGov polls, part of the Welsh Political Barometer by Cardiff University, gave the Tories clear leads as high as 10 points.
RANDOM STAT: While health has often come up as the top issue elsewhere, Brexit appeared to trump it in Wales. 54% of people said it was the most important election issue to them, compared to 42% saying health.