Will the Conservatives win the general election 2017? Latest polls and odds | Politics | News


Will the Conservatives win the general election?

Theresa May launched her manifesto this week, promising a “mainstream government that will deliver for mainstream Britain”.

The document pledges to build a strong economy with reduced taxes for workers and corporations.

The Prime Minister has pledged to tackle immigration, with a promise to reduce net migration to below 100,000, and a levy on firms employing migrant workers.

Pensioners would be affected by the end of the triple lock and the introduction of means-tested winter fuel payments.

The latest poll released after the manifesto launch puts the Conservatives ahead of Labour by 15 points.

Mrs May’s party won 49 per cent support in the Ipsos Mori poll, unchanged from the previous one.

Labour were behind on 34 per cent, an eight point increase.

The Liberal Democrats trail on eight per cent (-1) and Ukip finished on six per cent (+3).

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Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predicts that the Conservative Party’s massive lead will translate to 398 seats in Parliament.

Mr Baxter used a range of opinion polls from May 9 until May 17 to predict the election results.

Labour will likely land on 177 seats, Mr Baxter says, with the Liberal Democrats on six.

The Green Party are predicted to hold on to their single MP, with Ukip remaining seatless.

The SNP could win 46 seats and Plaid Cymru four.

Latest polls in full

CON 49 (nc)

LAB 34 (+8)

LD 7 (-7)

Greens 3 (+2)

UKIP 2 (-2)

Latest odds in full

The Conservatives are the favourite to win both an overall majority and the most seats at Betfair.

Mrs May has a 93 per cent chance of victory, the bookmaker says, with no overall majority the second most likely option at three per cent.

Labour has been given a less than two per cent chance to win the election.

Majority

Conservative Majority 1/14 or 93% chance)

No Overall Majority 18.5 (17/1 or an 5% chance

Labour Majority 59/1

Most Seats

Conservative 1/33 or 97% chance

Labour 27/1 or a 3% chance

Lib Dems 719/1)

UKIP 759/1

Source